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Emerging markets have yet to recover to pre-COVID levels and interest rates and spreads are at cycle lows. I believe emerging markets will recover and interest rates globally could climb higher. Financial Institutions in Latin America could be big beneficiaries if both come true. My top pick in Latin America is Bladex (NYSE:BLX). Bladex is the most diversified of the Latin America banks operating in almost every Latin American country. 75% of their loans are less than one year in duration with 48% being variable rate meaning they should benefit nicely if rates move higher. Almost all loans are made in US dollars effectively negating any currency risk at least for a US investor. They also have the safest loan book in Latin America evidenced by their low NPL ratio and in the most recent quarter management reported 0 NPLs. Currently, Bladex is paying a 6.5% dividend and management just recently announced a 60mm dollar buyback which puts the shareholder yield close to 11%. So even if interest rates don’t rise shareholders will get paid. First I’ll go into the Macro backdrop then compare Bladex to peers and go into Bladex’s valuation.

I see restaurants benefiting post Covid because lots of competition got eliminated during the shutdown. This should lead to an attractive competitive environment which should offset margin pressure from labor and food delivery. In this space GTIM sticks out as an enticing business with restaurant operating margins close to its peers, and has plenty of growth ahead of itself. However none of that is reflected in the stock price; trading at less than .5 times sales well below peers. I’ll go over trends in the restaurant industry then delve into why I like GTIM.